Institut Royal des Etudes Stratégiques
The methodological approach

A reading grid was adopted to identify and catalogue the major trends by 2030 and 2050, distinguishing between global and regional evolutions. This grid is based on the "Future Compass" tool developed by IRES, which the panelists used to map the trends into the four following categories:

  • Stable trends with fairly substantial observation elements to understand future evolution and the resulting impacts.
  • Bifurcating trends which may lead to contrasting trends and where the degree of uncertainty remains high.
  • Weak signals about which questions are infrequent and data virtually non-existent.
  • Emergences which seem to be unlikely developments for human being, but whose impacts could be significant if the context becomes positive

Reading grid